This Venezuelan analyst, one of the most respected opinion leaders in the world, addresses in his latest book the big issues that affect society, such as democratic health or AI. “I’m surprised by how many threats we don’t have answers to yet,” he says.

Moisés Naím (Tripoli, 1952) speaks softly, as if he wanted to demonstrate that to rise above the strident current events, ideas are more useful than decibels. His voice, kind and serene, can be heard among the clashing of cups and spoons.and the central Madrid cafeteria. It sounds like a metaphor for freethought making its way through the acoustic mud that politics pours on our reality.

“I love Madrid, I would come one day

Moisés Naím (Tripoli, 1952) speaks softly, as if he wanted to demonstrate that to rise above the strident current events, ideas are more useful than decibels. His voice, kind and serene, can be heard among the clashing of cups and spoons.and the central Madrid café. It sounds like a metaphor for free thought making its way through the acoustic mud that politics pours on our reality.

“I love Madrid, I would come if I ever leave the US,” confesses the Venezuelan journalist and writer in front of his recently finished breakfast plate. The former executive director of the World Bank and Minister of Industry and Commerce of Venezuela in the early 1990s now lives in Washington DC, where the headquarters of the World Bank are located. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace of which he is a distinguished member. We are dealing with one of the most influential opinion leaders in the world.

After attending the La Toja Forum in Seville, Naím attends to the media in Madrid to present What is happening to us. 121 ideas to explore the 21st century (Debate), a book in which he compiles the columns he has published in the press since 2016 – in media such as The country either The Republic– as an analyst of the international panorama.

His texts serve to x-ray the themes and characters that set the course for all of us. He says of Putin: “His worldview belongs to the 19th century.” From Trump: “He recently broke his record and in a single day told 74 lies.” And from Maduro: “It’s banal. But also lethal.” Together with Obrador, Netanyahu or Bolsonaro, they form the vanguard of the “3P autocrats” – experts in populism, polarization and post-truth – who threaten to destroy the foundations of democracy.

“Populism is from the right and from the left,” he warns in his essay. And warn that this rude drift, together with the internal tidal wave generated by AI or climate change, It would be causing us serious mental disorders.. “In the world, one person commits suicide every forty seconds,” she points out.

The book begins by warning of the ‘boom’ of anxiety that we are experiencing and that comes from not knowing what is happening to us. Why are we so confused?
The title of the book, What is happening to us, I copied it, with all due respect, to Ortega y Gasset, who in the 1930s already saw this instability coming and said: ‘What is happening to us? That we don’t know what is happening to us.’ This book responds to that same impulse. We know that bigger, more permanent, more global and more systemic changes are coming, whether in the field of technology, society, climate or weapons. All at the same time and all unpublished. People sense that they will be affected by these changes, but without knowing exactly when or how.
AI is one of those great disruptive elements and many of those who raise the most alarm, such as Suleyman or Gawdat, have experienced its development from within.
I am friends with some of them because the topic interests me a lot. You and I, although we can train, still remain ‘amateurs’, but they understand better than us what lies ahead. I am not an expert, but I am informed enough to know that what is coming, as I told you before, is great and unprecedented. We are not ready to process it yet.

You are an observer of global news. What has caught your attention lately about what’s happening in the world?
Who would have imagined a war in the middle of Europe? The world is experiencing several active wars. There are two very visible ones, those in Russia and Ukraine, and those in Israel and Palestine. But there are also others in Africa and Asia. I am surprised by the number of simultaneous threats that occur and for which we do not yet have adequate responses.
He says that Venezuela is a failed, mafia-like state taken over by Cuba. Did I leave something?
No. And with an opposition that is revealing the criminal and dictatorial nature of the Maduro regime.
You have spoken on other occasions about the Cartel de los Soles…
The military that handles drug trafficking.
Are we then talking more about a cartel than a State?
Correct. It was previously thought that a State could be a victim of people who bribed or extorted it. Now, organized crime is not outside trying to influence the State, but inside. The Government is part of organized crime and that does not only happen in Venezuela, it also happens in Ortega’s Nicaragua or Putin’s Russia.

It’s your idea of ​​the ‘Mafia State’…
It is not simply about the mafia attacking certain sectors such as customs or controlling drug trafficking. Here, we talk about organized crime being the State.
María Corina Machado is having great success with her tour. Do you think that this will change something on July 28 or that Maduro will continue entrenched in power?
Both things are going to happen. Miracles in politics also exist. It is miraculous what María Corina Machado and her movement have achieved. When the movement arose to promote primary elections and elect a presidential candidate, people thought it couldn’t happen… and it did. And he launched a candidate who had always been there, but who reached an unprecedented level of popularity and influence. It is a miracle.
But…
But there is also reality. And the reality is that having control of the government is existential for Maduro and his entourage: the Suns cartel, plus the Iranians, the Chinese, the Russians and the Cubans. In Venezuela many of the decisions, if not all, require the approval of the Cuban regime. Now, everyone has found that 80% of Venezuelans do not like this president. It is very clear that they do not have the support of the citizens, but they do have the support of the people with rifles and machine guns. As long as the armed forces, associated with drug trafficking, have the money and weapons, it will be part of the equation. And let’s not forget that when we talk about Venezuela, we talk about a country invaded clandestinely.

“I have studied how Chávez and Trump speak to people, and they are the same things, they touch the same keys: sensations, emotions, identities”

Do you see symptoms of contagion of the 3Ps in Spanish politics?
Absolutely. The way in which all these transitions in which the country is immersed have been handled, the independence movement… it is clearly perceived in all these processes. In any case, it is very important to say that democracy is not what happens on election day.

We are not just talking about voting, but also about the rule of law.
Of course. Democracy is what happens between those two days when people vote, and during those four or five years is when the most clandestine and debilitating attacks against it can occur. We are seeing this, for example, with the politicization of things like judges. There is a negative push, but also a great deal of restraint. Spain is very far from being part of the radical, extremist 3Ps. It is a country that still has a strong dose of constitutional protection, I don’t want to sound alarmist.
But he does notice worrying symptoms…
We see it, we are seeing it today.
What do you see?
One of the most interesting contrasts is that Spain’s economic health is good and its political health is bad. Politically it is in a process of tension, polarization, harsh confrontation, and struggle for identities. And you say to yourself: ‘This country is falling apart.’ But it’s not like that, you go out into the street, talk to people, see the numbers and Spain is right now one of the good things that are happening in the world.

“Spain is a country that still has a strong dose of constitutional protection”

You speak of the tyranny of minorities. What do you mean?
In Israel, for example, Netanyahu, in order to stay in power, has given very small groups of Israeli radicals everything they want. We are talking about microscopic movements. We have also seen this with the Sánchez Government’s willingness to negotiate with minority groups in Spain to retain power.

What is at stake for the world this year with the US elections?
Democracy. The United States is a country that socially and militarily leads the world in many ways, but it has two candidates who a few years ago would have been unacceptable. In the elections it is almost certain that the margin of victory is going to be very thin. Nobody is going to win by an avalanche of votes. And the systems in place to ensure that the winner in these elections is the legitimate victor have been weakened, undermined and politicized.
In his last column he talks about how anarchy and mistrust reign in the United States.
Correct. And something palpable, it’s not that I invented it.
I imagine that in Washington you will agree with congressmen and senators who tell you so.
Yes, I am part of the environment, of the ‘furniture store’ [ríe]What I think is very important, and I think that this is rarely discussed, is that these elections will not be like the usual ones. There have been no accusations against Biden for having made decisions that undermine democracy. And there is an endless list of unacceptable examples of how Trump acted when he was president.
And also losing office, with the Capitol issue.
There Trump, like a child, said: ‘I’ll take my ball and I’ll go.’ So if it is a mistake to vote for Biden, in any case it is a mistake that lasts four years. But if it is a mistake to vote for Trump, the mistake is more permanent: the next day it can begin to undermine and limit the judicial framework that defines democracy. That is, in this case it is not the same to vote for Juan [lo dice por Biden] that to Pedro [Trump]. Because Pedro, if he arrives, will do everything possible not to leave again. Don’t you think that this vision of Juan and Pedro, one who leaves and the other who stays, is very clear?

It is in line with his opinion that continuity is more dangerous than populism.
Correct. But we must recognize and respect that 74 million Americans voted for Trump.
Because?
Trump, as a narrator of the politics and aspirations of a large group of Americans, is much better than Biden. Listening to a speech by Biden is painful. Listening to one by Trump is theater, well thought-out theater. And the only thing I can add is that this is a worldwide phenomenon.
It speaks of increasingly lazy, uninformed and irresponsible citizens.
All of this is verified, I have surveys that prove it. It has to do with the third P, which is post-truth. We live in a world where information flows everywhere and nobody knows who to believe, why to believe, how to believe, or when or where… There are evil actors who stir all of this up.
We have Europe left. What is your assessment of the last elections where the extreme right emerged in several countries?
The 3Ps serve very well to understand what just happened, including Macron’s decision to call elections. The message is that governing is becoming increasingly difficult. And the lack of success of the traditional way of governing is leading to new measures, decisions and strategies.

You say that the most valuable information is often hidden in paragraph 23 of a document that nobody reads and that as a journalist you try to find it. Have you found this week’s one yet?
[Ríe] Yes, I found it, but not this week. It’s a discovery from some time ago and I’m going to use it to write a book I’m writing. But for now I’m keeping it to myself.

What’s happening to us: 121 ideas to explore in the 21st century

Moses Naim

Debate. 424 pages. 20.80 euros. You can buy it here

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